Not Enough Kids

Interesting piece here from Spengler in Asia Times Online.

Spengler is commenting on a 1985 paper on ethics and the marketplace wiritten by then-Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, now Pope Benedict XVI.

Spengler’s recurrent theme is “nihilism“:

The Europeans are paying for their own nihilism. Having invented the perfect post-Christian society with cradle-to-grave services, they have not found anyone willing to live in it, except for the immigrants who well may inherit it from the disappearing locals.

In this latest piece he applauds Ratzinger for identifying the moral emptiness of the market-driven, consumerist, low-birthrate society.

Underlying the crisis is the Western world’s repudiation of life, through a hedonism that puts consumption or “self-realization” ahead of child-rearing … Economics simply never has had to confront a situation in which the next generation simply failed to turn up.

It’s always tempting to respond to Papal scoldings about our reluctance to breed in the manner of a U.S. politician of forty years or so ago:  “You no play-a da game, you no make-a da rules.” And the then-Cardinal does not seem (on Spengler’s account) to take up the issues that underlie the underlying issues Spengler claims he identified, e.g.

  • Should the human race return to pre-modern levels of reproduction? Given the life-preserving powers of modern medicine, that would get you a generation-on-generation multiplier of four or five. So for each person alive today, there would be 256 or 625 alive four generations later, bringing the U.S. population to something in the range 80 to 200 billion. Is this a desirable goal?
  • Given that the cratering of European birthrates has been most sensational in the most traditionally Catholic countries (Spain, Italy, Ireland), possibly the Catholic church may not be the most effective instrument for restoring demographic vitality.
  • As Heather keeps pointing out, the connections between religiosity, social order, and moral behavior are, to put it mildly, not clear. The least religious state of the Union is Oregon, 18 percent of whose inhabitants declare themselves as having no religious affiliation. For murder (2007, per 100,000), births out of wedlock (1995, percentage), and persons living with AIDS (2007, per 100,000), Oregon’s stats are 1.9—28.9—76. The most religious state is Mississippi, with only four percent having no religious affiliation. Mississippi’s stats are 7.1—45.3—109. If it’s responsible, ethical behavior you want, religion may not help.
  • How do you re-religionize a de-religioned populace? Ratzinger’s paper is a generation in the past, so obviously learned articles by eminent church intellectuals don’t help much. My guess would be that the one thing that does help is seriously hard times.  “In good times you don’t burn incense; in bad times you hug Buddha’s foot,” say the Chinese, who know a
    thing or two about bad times. Getting people to believe the things that you believe, when they currently don’t, is quite a trick. In our age, when the top three IQ quartiles, at least, have gotten used to legal and scientific standards of evidentiary demonstration, it isn’t easy. And if only the bottom quartile gets persuaded and starts pumping out kids, you get Idiocracy.

These are the dilemmas of our time. Certainly they are nontrivial. That Ratzinger’s paper, on Spengler’s acoount, offers any help, or even gives a full analysis, is not obvious to me.

Our economic order, like our political order, is built on the notion that if you get the structures right, self-interest will keep your system afloat, and the lower human instincts will be restrained, or at least will never go so unchecked as to sink the system.  That’s a democratic ideal.  It was appealing to the 18th century in part because of the horrors of the preceding age, when moral authoritarianism ruled.

Ratzinger’s position is — and must be, since he is a functionary in an authoritarian church — that a return to moral authoritarianism is what we need.  (How these clerics hate the Enlightenment!) He also believes that his brand of moral authoritarianism, based on the “truths” of Christianity, is just the ticket.   Those truths are a hard sell in a skeptical age, though; and Ratzinger does not, probably cannot, confront the fact that the 18th-century arrangements, the ones that got us where we are, were better, in every way, than the moral-authoritarian order that came before.

Those arrangements are throwing up problems now; but a return to the earlier, failed synthesis is neither desirable nor (probably) possible.  We need to work on the structures, that’s all.  Ratzinger’s notion that we should get everyone going to Mass and making babies, isn’t going to happen; and if it did, it would in very short order create problems far greater than those we now face.

Spengler is right, though, that the current economic system, as it applies in advanced countries, is based on some demographic assumptions that no longer apply. This needs figuring out.

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Acceptance of Evolution & belief in God

The question as to the relationship on a socio-cultural scale about the relationship of acceptance of evolution and belief in God is often mooted.  In The Blind Watchmaker Richard Dawkins famously contended that the theory of Darwinian evolution allowed one to be an intellectually fulfilled atheist.  I am mildly skeptical of universalizing this as a general truth; that is, just because Richard Dawkins’ atheism was solidified by his exposure to Darwin’s theory of evolution, does not entail that this is so for most humans.  The fact is that most humans do not understand the theory evolution, let alone are able to generate inferences and entailments from said theory.  An acceptance of the theory of evolution in the modern world is much more likely simply a signal or indicator that one is well educated and accepts the contemporary consensus of scholarship.  This general lack of internalization of evolutionary theory into the cognitive toolkit of the typical “educated” and “well read” person makes me skeptical of evolution’s socio-cultural impact, no matter what Creationists and Evolutionists might contend.

In any case, what does the cross-cultural data tell us?  As it is, we have a great deal of survey on belief in God (or lack of) in modern nations, as well as attitudes toward evolution theory.  So it is only a matter of effort to generate a few scatterplots…. Continue reading

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Mind bending assumptions

A minor follow up, just so that readers of this weblog know where I’m “coming from.” I accept the contentions that:

  1.  Most cognition is implicit. That is, we do not have access to it to so that it is amenable to reflective analysis.
  2. Human cognition exhibits operational modularity. That is, different mental tasks rely upon different sets of mental competencies.  Whether modularity is “massive” or not, whether it has a biophysical grounding in brain architecture or not, is not of much concern to me.

 

 My ideas are strongly influenced by contemporary cognitive science, they’re not an a priori assumption that I hold because of some deep philosophical belief, or an inductive inference derived from a survey of human history.  Rather, laboratory experiments on American college students suggest that as a species we fancy ourselves as much more reflective and rational than we truly are.  These findings have made contemporary human behavior much more intelligible to me, and human history as well.  

Now, it does turn out that people who are two standard deviations above the norm in intelligence are more rational than people who are around the human norm.  These people form about ~2% of the American population, and, they are the ones who are likely to expend their marginal time on discussion about abstract topics.  “Big Think” if you will. But, even these people are not very rational or reflective by absolute criteria, or at least not as rational or reflective as they think they are. Rationality has to be graded on a curve.

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The arational conservative

Yale Brought Me to Conservatism:

I can only describe the moment as an epiphany, with all that that implies. “An age of prudence” was my own age of rationalism. There was no reason to exist. But I did: not because I could prove it, or because I knew, but because in that utterly human moment of terror and sacrifice that gave meaning, I recognized that it didn’t matter. I didn’t need a good reason to love. But I did.

I have said very little so far about my politics. The entire edifice of my beliefs had rested on that rationalist Weltanschauung. I had been liberal in the classical sense: I had considered Man as an atomized, self-complete individual, engaged with the world through choice and rational thought. When the framework for that conceptual system fell apart, so too did its results.

The Enlightenment was greatness. Two centuries after its denouement it is in fact conservative to defend it. Rational physical systems pervade our lives. But the power of the Enlightenment conceit, rationality’s moment of hubris, stopped at the limits of society and psychology. The sciences of society are still primitive affairs, and one could argue that psychology is still a science in its infancy if powers of prediction are any judge.

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Washington Christmas display, cont’d

In one of the first posts at this site, Bradlaugh noted the flap in Washington state about how Gov. Christine Gregoire had supposedly — in Bill O’Reilly’s words — “insulted Christians all over the world” by ordering/allowing the adding of a plaque with an in-your-face atheist message to the holiday decorations (which included a Nativity scene) at a state office building.

Who brought the red tape?

Who brought the red tape?

Most of us, including me, took exception in one way or another to the atheist plaque or at least its wording, and I speculated that Gov. Gregoire’s office might have responded to the atheist group’s request in some way more likely to engender peace among all believers and good will toward men at the holiday season (more).

Well, I should have realized at the time that all public controversies are more complicated than Bill O’Reilly makes them sound, and in particular I of all people should have been more alert to ask the question “Who was suing or threatening to sue whom?”

Now I read this from Ed Brayton at Dispatches from the Culture Wars:

The governor has no choice, folks. There is a legal settlement, negotiated by the ADF, that requires that all individuals and groups have equal access. This was done specifically to get access for a nativity scene. This reminds me very much of the school in Virginia, where a Christian group sued the school to be allowed to send fliers home with students. Then the next year, when a humanist group used the same process to advertise a humanist summer camp, they were outraged.* They’ve used equal access arguments to get their foot in the door, then they want to slam that door on others.

The ADF stands for Alliance Defense Fund, one of the hyperlitigious Christian Right lawyer strike forces that I expect to be covering often on this site. And while Gov. Gregoire is a liberal Democrat, the state’s highly regarded Republican attorney general, Rob McKenna, released a joint statement with the governor explaining why the state felt that it had no choice and incidentally making clear who the litigious party was in all this: the ADF.

Americans United also covers the controversy:

The ADF was ecstatic over the settlement, so it seems rather funny that this year, when an atheist group wanted to [avail itself of the settlement’s terms and] display its own sign, that suddenly O’Reilly wants to point his finger at the governor, not his allies who started this mess.

It still seems faintly incredible to me that the ADF could sue to force the insertion of a Nativity scene in a state office building whose managers would have preferred innocuous holly-and-candy-cane displays.** But clearly I should be paying more attention to this area of the law.

*P.S. See comments, in which a commenter notes, and Brayton agrees, that this wording is faulty and should not have identified the group that filed the original school lawsuit as the same group that was outraged over its later implementation.

P.P.S. The settlement indicates that the sequence of events was as follows: 1) Capitol had been allowing “holiday tree” with no apparent sectarian content; 2) in effort to be even-handed, authorities granted request to add menorah; 3) presence of menorah allowed ADF to sue arguing that sectarian symbols were on display so that nativity had to be added too.

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Welcome Cornelius J. Troost

I was pleased to see that Cornelius J. Troost is contributing to our comment thread. I admire his self-control:  not once, in a longish comment, did he mention his excellent book, Apes or Angels. It would make a great Christmas present for the wavering creationist you love.

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Our Christian Constitution

I was a Ron Paul supporter in the recent campaign.  When Ron Paul endorsed Chuck Baldwin of the Constitution Party as his preferred presidential candidate, I looked up both candidate and party.

Their view is that the U.S. Constitution is a Christian document, which to me seems implausible but pretty harmless — a good deal more harmless, at any rate, than the current liberal-elite opinion that the Constitution is a sort of vague Mission Statement cooked up by a bunch of slave-owning plutocrats and festooned with “penumbras” that you need a pair of magic spectacles to see.

Chuck and his party are also nutty about abortion and euthanasia, but I can live with that (so to speak). I agree with them about pretty much everything else, and decided to vote for Baldwin on November 4. Alas, he didn’t show on the ballot in New York (whatever Wikipedia says), and when I enquired about a write-in, the procedure was more than I could be bothered with. Political-passion-wise, I’m in the second quartile. Just barely.

I therefore read with interest Chuck Baldwin’s recent VDARE column. It’s basically an attack on
George W. Bush for not being Christian enough, another attack on James Dobson, Pensacola Christian College (no, me neither), and the rest of the “official” Religious Right for having let GWB sucker them when he doesn’t even believe in the literal truth of the Bible!

George Bush took a prosperous and robust economy, and led America to the verge of a second Great Depression. He has taken a (relatively) free and independent republic to the brink of becoming a globalist Police State. He has pushed the envelope of executive power; he has trampled individual liberty; he has made a mockery of justice; and he has made America the laughingstock of the world. In addition, Bush has misused and abused our nation’s bravest and finest by his illegal and inexcusable invasion of Iraq.

No matter. The Religious Right still loves him. Why? Because he is a “Christian” Republican.

There is also a strong endorsement of Thomas Jefferson for having embraced the “Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God,” even if he wasn’t much of a a Christian otherwise. I’m not convinced they have quite got Jefferson right here, but any friends of ol’ Tom are friends of mine.

Do I regret having spoken up for Baldwin and having tried, in my feeble way, to vote for him? Not at all. The Constitution Party’s positions on large policy issues seem to me sound, and accord closely with my own. The Christian stuff seems harmless. Unless they go off the rails in some way, as Third Parties tend to do, I shall try harder to vote for them in future. I should change my party registration, too. I will … when I have time …

Posted in politics, Uncategorized | 19 Comments

Weekend Open Thread

Posted in Uncategorized | 15 Comments

2008 Presidential election, votes by income & education

How the Rich Are Different From You and Me: Places that went for Obama are richer and smarter than places that went for McCain. The subhead is critical here:

And it isn’t just about politics. The division is also between rich and poor, between those with college educations and those without. On average, Republican communities have lower incomes and less education than Democratic communities. And those differences are growing as people migrate.

Just a reminder from the Exit Polls:

Continue reading

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Priorities

Here’s an interesting piece from the Guardian by Salman Hameed. He’s arguing that the Islamic world will be the next front in the battle over evolution, and discusses how scientists should respond to the “rising challenge of creationism” among Muslims:

Despite surveys showing hostility towards evolution, there is also an overwhelmingly pro-science attitude. This is particularly true for sciences that have practical and technological benefits. The message about evolution in the Islamic world therefore needs to be framed in a way that emphasises practical applications and shows that it is the bedrock of modern biology. This is the approach advocated in the US in the recent National Academy of Sciences publication Science, Evolution, and Creationism. The arguments for evolution will have to be framed differently in each country. The national academies of Muslim countries can tailor the specifics of the message according to the political and cultural realities of their respective communities.

Hameed warns:

If a link between evolution and atheism is stressed, as some prominent scientists in the west have been advocating, this will undoubtedly cut short the dialogue and the vast majority of people in the Muslim world will choose religion over evolution. Muslim creationists know this and they have been stressing this link in their anti-evolution works.

Hameed’s point of view is, I reckon, reasonable. I’ve never felt that religious faith is necessarily incompatible with an acceptance of evolutionary science, and it’s almost certainly counterproductive to argue that it is. The debate over the existence of God is (so to speak) a theological dispute, important to those who like to worry about such things, but not so important, surely, as to be something that should take priority over the defense of basic scientific knowledge…

Posted in Science & Faith | 24 Comments