A commenter below asks if there is any data to back up Ross & Reihan‘s assertion that the young are more supportive of gay rights and more skeptical of abortion on demand. So I looked in the GSS as the age trend lines over 5 year intervals on the ABANY and HOMOSEX variables. Looks like Ross & Reihan might be alluding to real data, if not these data….
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Meta
I don’t think that abortion on demand is the right question.
I think support for abortion rights is the question.
Look here.
You see many cites of the Hamilton poll offered as proof that youth is more pro-life, but that is completely ignoring the Roe v Wade question.
Cognitive dissonance?
60% of the youth demographic support Roe v Wade. This is consistant with support for gay rights.
The youth demographic may consider abortion on demand to be “morally” wrong, but citizen rights is going to trump any sentiment over the morality of abortion on demand.
My hypothesis is that citizen rights is the hidden variable that shapes youth voting preference.
Pingback: DYSPEPSIA GENERATION » Blog Archive » Young anti-abortion & pro-gay?
And 60% is consistant with a vote for Obama, also.
Why don’t you just put out the batsignal for Sailer?
He usta be good at teasing out hidden variables before he got pithed by Obama Derangement Syndrome.
Here’s a clue: most kids’ baby pictures book now starts with a couple of muzzy ultrasounds of the kid in utero. Of course they’re not so hot on abortion.
Even though I support aborton on demand in the first trimester, and in certain specific circumstances after that, I would not be able to endorse abortion on demand without any qualifiers attached. If that’s how the question was asked, it might as well have been designed to elicit a No.
Given that we don’t have abortion on demand, and nobody is arguing for it, I’m not sure what the point of this is.
Of course we have abortion on demand.
Roe v Wade.
I take strong issue with Reihan’s statement.
False.
Razib’s link does nothing to substantiate this untruth which I have seen from Ross and Ponnuru as well.
Younger voters are inclined to not want abortions for themselves, but are strongly inclined to protect the rights of others to have the option.
By 2:1.
The exactsame ratio, btw, that voted for Obama and voted against Prop 8.
Since there is no supporting data, Fraa Hume, could you please change the title of your post?
So that is it not used for more self-delusion and links to more tedious apologia for socons by what dregs remain of the rightside intelligentsia..
I think it should be…….
Young, Anti-personal-abortion, but Unequivocably Pro-Citizen Rights.
Also, Pro-Obama.
😉
Pingback: Younger People Are Not More Pro-Choice « The American Catholic: Politics and Culture from a Catholic perspective
Am I the only one who finds that graph completely illegible? There are two yes/no questions being asked, and three trend lines labeled “yes”, “no” and “always wrong”. Moreover, the title reads “Yes/No Abortion on demand & homosexuality is always wrong”; it is ambiguous whether “is always wrong” modifies “homosexuality” or “Abortion on demand & homosexuality”.
My best guess is that the two questions were
(1) “Yes or no, do you support abortion on demand?” and
(2) “Is homosexuality always wrong?”
and the graph plots people answering “yes” to (1), “no” to (1) and “always wrong” to (2) but, for some reason, omits people answering “not always wrong” to (2). But it would certainly be nice if this were cleared up.
I think matoko_chan may be being people credit for too much knowledge in taking it that young people think abortion on demand morally wrong but are against restricting it because they favor Roe v. Wade. I suspect that a lot of what we’re seeing there is in fact that people don’t have a very clear idea of what Roe did, or what would happen if it went away. The popular perception in many quarters is that its perfectly possible to restrict abortion under Roe and only allow it in the hard cases — and that if Roe were overturned that women would be being dragged off to jail the next day. Both of these impressions are false, but they’re not widely perceived as such.
I’d tend to think that Razib’s graph underscores the triumph of the tolerance approach to nearly every topic. One of the comments I’ve heard from non-religious co-workers who’ve surprised me by expressing statements strongly against abortion is that abortion “isn’t fair” to the baby. That’s certainly very much the same underlying thought that’s behind increased toleration of the gay lifestyle — that it’s not fair to criticize other people’s romantic inclinations.
It’s amazing that people can have a coherent conversation about a completely inscrutable chart. The series are Yes, No, and Always Wrong? What? How does that even make sense?
Guess it’s evidence that people aren’t even looking at the chart and are just arguing the headline. Same as it ever was.
No, Darwin Cathedral, you are wrong.
It is gobsmakingly obvious.
Sure, the youth demographic does believe abortion on demand is “morally wrong”.
However, it is abundantly clear that they believe that stripping citizens of their rights is CIVICALLY WRONG.
If conservatism is ever to regain traction with their lost generation of Obamavoters, it simply must drop any pretensions to legislating against citizen rights, whether those rights are abortion-on-demand or samesex marriage.
Sure, promote pro-life intiatives, profamily initiatives. But those initiatives simply cannot be made into law.
Or conservatism will simply never be able attract young voters.
Just tell the socons the truth.
Unless they moderate their position on legislating morality, they will devolve to a fringe party.
Here yah go ‘zib.
Teh Stupid, it burrrrns.
Here is gobsmakingly obvious answer, Ross.
Why should I have to explain this to you?
I’m only a fid.
Youth for Obama 2:1
Youth against Prop 8 2:1
Youth support Roe 2:1
Sure, teh kids are pro-life, but they are AGAINST LEGISLATED MORALITY.
Get a clue.
And also…..isn’t it interesting that when pressed for hard data, Ross uses David Hume’s chart?
The right has such a passion for Barry Manilow statistics and magical thinking.
Truly revolting.
However, it is abundantly clear that they believe that stripping citizens of their rights is CIVICALLY WRONG.
Except, matoko_chan, than in polling people actually do pretty consistently favor levels of legal restriction on abortion which are not currently allowed under Roe. Not a total ban, but certainly levels of restriction not currently possible.
You’re exhibiting some classic symptoms of the old, “What made us lose the election was exactly what I always wanted to do anyway,” syndrom. You may strongly dislike “legislated morality”, but historically it sells pretty well. You may think that economic libertarian/social liberal is the right combination — but any honest appraisal will tell you its a minority view.
And it’s “DarwinCatholic”, not “Darwin Cathedral”. 🙂
sidereal,
The chart is pretty easy: The “always wrong” trendline refers to the percentage of age groups saying that homosexuality is always wrong. The “yes” and “no” trendlines refer to opinions of abortion on demand.
If that’s how the question was asked, it might as well have been designed to elicit a No.
Whatever problem people have with the wording of the question, I don’t see how it matters if it was asked with the same wording across all age groups.
If the wording elicits a “no” answer then it’s pretty significant that for people 18-40, the older you are the more likely you are not to give that elicited answer (while at the same time, being more likely to say homosexuality is always wrong).
oops
lol.
well, the problem is history vs evo theory of culture.
Sorry to sound like a talking parrot, but…..show me the data.
And i betcha any people that favor legal restriction aren’t YOUNG people.
matoko_chan,
Gallup poll from May of 2008 showed:
– 57% said abortion should be legal only in a few circumstances or illegal in all circumstances
Gallup in 2007 found:
– 72% said late term abortion should be illegal
Gallup found in 2005
– 64% said wives should be required to notify husban if having an abortion
In 2003 Gallup found:
-56% support outlawing 1st trimester abortions for any reason (in other words the don’t support allowing abortion regardless of the reason)
– 56% support outlawing 3rd trimester abortions because the child mentally disabled
– 74% support outlawing 3rd trimester abortion for any reason
– 61% support outlawing abortions if the reason is that the woman or family cannot afford to raise the child
– 68% support making abortion illegal in the 2nd trimester
– 84% support making abortion illegal in the 2nd trimester
http://www.gallup.com/poll/1576/Abortion.aspx
razib,
you’re confusing age and cohort and Douthat/Salam are talking about the latter. i ran the numbers myself on the GSS restricting the sample to only the 2000-2006 waves to avoid confounding age and period with cohort. when i did this it confirms what Douthat/Salam are claiming: support for abortion peaks with cohorts born in the late 50s whereas tolerance of gay sex rises monotonically with recent cohorts.
Mark Adams
Yet in 2006 Hamilton’s work shows 60% of youth reject striking down Roe v Wade, while 70% of the same responders said they would not have an abortion themselves.
In my doman, we have a name for only citing stats that support your thesis. Barry Manilow statistics.
There is yet some value in what one of my older professors called the “farmer method”, ie, eyeballing the data.
Hamilton poll data— youth support Roe v Wade 2:1
Election results— youth voted against Prop 8 2:1
youth vote for Obama 2:1
Striking, nu?
I suspect what Ross and Reihan are attemptin’ to construe as youth support for anti-abortion legislation is Yuck Factor bias.
Gallup should have asked the Roe v Wade question to their respondents.
Here, I’ll make this a little clearer.
The effect Ross and Reihan want to see in the poll data is prolife sentiment.
I think that is there.
But what the data seems to reveal is a kind of personal prolife sentiment, opposed to a public pro-choice sentiment.
Gallup doesn’t ask The Question, the Roe v Wade question, so IMHO the sentiment findings are largely useless as a basis to try to win back the youth vote.
As long as 60% of the youth demographic supports Roe v Wade, sentiment polling on that demographic’s opinion of prolife restrictions is largely meaningless.
I see a lot of claims that “young voters just don’t understand Roe v Wade”– that isn’t the the problem I think. I think young voters might deplore unnecessary late term abortion, but that simply won’t ever translate into GOP votes.
The proof is in the pudding, ie, the election results.
JA says it pretty well in Reihan’s thread at the Scene–
That is just a more elegant way of saying Yuck Factor Bias.
😉
matoko_chan,
You asked for data showing that “people actually do pretty consistently favor levels of legal restriction on abortion which are not currently allowed under Roe.”
I provided you data. You do with it what you want.
————
And i betcha any people that favor legal restriction aren’t YOUNG people.
A poll conducted by Pew in August of 2008 found, “Majorities of most age groups say that abortion should be legal in all or most cases, though support for legalized abortion is somewhat lower among those under age 30 (52%) compared with those ages 50-64 (58%). Only among those age 65 and older do fewer than half (46%) support legalized abortion.”
http://pewforum.org/docs/?DocID=350
@Gabriel Rossman
Right. Look at my analysis here:
http://inductivist.blogspot.com/2007/08/in-2005-it-looked-to-me-like-young.html
It shows that approval of homosexual sex increased dramatically among those ages 18-30 in the 1990s and has levelled off since. Saying yes to abortion on demand has dropped some in the last decade among the same age group.
matoko_chan,
“It was the under-30 vote that drew many of the questions from the journalists and think-tankers at the final session of the two-day event. (The transcript for this session, like earlier ones, will be posted next week at pewforum.org)
“[Democratic pollster Anna] Greenberg [of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner,] says she finds them to be more progressive on issues such at the environment and gay marriage but not on abortion.”
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/religion/post/2008/12/59603038/1