Sarah Palin: Reculer Pour Mieux Sauter – or Just Another Mess-Up?

In the absence of some sort of scandal about to come crashing down on her head, I simply don’t know what to make of Gov. Palin’s resignation. I can buy the argument-just-that if she is going to be campaigning intensively for national office, it’s in many ways a more honest thing to step down than to neglect the duties for which she is currently being paid by Alaska’s taxpayers. That makes her value-for-money, not a quitter.

However, if the reason she is resigning now is indeed a run in 2012, it looks wildly premature. Her base is already in the bag; she now needs to convince the skeptics that she could be an effective president – and the best way to do that would have been to make a good job of running Alaska, to shed the flakiness, and, dare I say it, to read up on a few things. She’s an intelligent person, and she’s an individual who has been treated to a degree of media vilification that goes well beyond any reasonable norm, but she has yet to demonstrate that she has what it takes for the White House. Doing the rounds of the rubber chicken echo chamber (there are no metaphors that I will not mix…) to the hosannas of the faithful is not the way to go.

As for whether yesterday’s news represents just the latest stage in a wider ‘crack-up’ of the religious right, Heather, I doubt it: Sarah Palin is Sarah Palin is Sarah Palin. Sure, she appears to be a somewhat religious woman, but, unlike, say, Mike Huckabee, I never detected a great deal of evidence that she had much interest in imposing those specific views (or their derivatives) on the population as a whole.

Finally, we should not be afraid of candidates with the populist touch. In the end, it’s what a candidate says that should count, not how he or she says it. If it takes a bit of aw shucks to defeat Obama-a clever populist in his own right-in 2012, so be it.

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The army marches on….

In the comments below I asserted that Sarah Palin’s political future is in her own hands because she has a following that will stand with her come hell or high water. For example, Erick Erickson of RedState states his analysis that Sarah Palin is probably done with electoral politics. So RedState gets emails like this:

From: Ann Carmichael
Subject: I love Sarah Palin
Date: July 3, 2009 7:47:19 PM EDT
To: RedState

I will not click on your sh**ty website ever again. Go to Hell!

The interesting fact is that of course Erick Erickson is not, and has not, been an anti-Sarah Palin conservative. He was simply offering his assessment of the future based on the facts that he had on hand. The scuttering of Harriet Miers’ nomination though suggests there are limits to the power of evangelical identity politics at the heights of the conservative movement, but it may be a different issue altogether in the primary process. The modern conservative elite itself descends from insurgents who overthrew the East Coast Establishment.

One interesting point is that successful presidential candidates of the past who mobilized mass support through the “common touch,” such as Andrew Jackson and William Henry Harrison, were actually relatively accomplished or privileged. Harrison burnished a log-cabin image despite his Virginia planter origins, while Jackson was a successful and wealthy man who had climbed into the back-country Ascendancy.

Addendum: Of the four candidates last fall Sarah Palin quickly became by far the least popular. Her negatives were high. But she has a intense following. I think perhaps an analogy can be made to the Ron Paul movement, which simply lacked the numbers to make an electoral impact, but in some ways shifted the debate because of its focus and organization.

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Religious Right crack-up continues

Now it’s Sarah Palin’s turn.   That icon of right-wing identity politics, revered for her populist authenticity  and lack of any taint of elite intellectualism, shows herself either to be involved in an as-yet-to-be-revealed scandal, or so nakedly ambitious that she lightly breaks her commitment to the people of Alaska.   Can’t wait to see how her apologists will spin this bit of hypocrisy.

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Random acts of nature

I highly recommend the recent episode on Stochasticity from Radiolab. It seems pretty clear that we have a “purpose seeking mind.”

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One for Heather

A Yemenia Airlines plane crashed into the Indian Ocean Tuesday. Of the 153 people on board, only one survived, 13-year-old Bahia Baraki of Paris. Said her Dad:  “I can’t say that it’s a miracle, I can say that it is God’s will.”

I guess the relatives of the other 152 passengers, the ones who didn’t make the cut with God, are real glad to hear that.

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Enough already

Where did Mark Sanford get the idea that he needs to reveal every last excruciating detail about his nauseatingly irrelevant love life–from his pastor, in some sort of open-yourself-to-Divine Forgiveness ritual?  Or is he just drunk with the false martyrdom of exhibitionism?

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Religion & the welfare state

The fact that high levels of religion tend to be inversely correlated with per capita government social spending is well known on an international scale. But it doesn’t seem true for American states.

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Saints & Sinners

Normally I would post this at one of my science blogs…but it might be relevant right now in politics. Sinning Saints and Saintly Sinners: The Paradox of Moral Self-Regulation:

The question of why people are motivated to act altruistically has been an important one for centuries, and across various disciplines. Drawing on previous research on moral regulation, we propose a framework suggesting that moral (or immoral) behavior can result from an internal balancing of moral self-worth and the cost inherent in altruistic behavior. In Experiment 1, participants were asked to write a self-relevant story containing words referring to either positive or negative traits. Participants who wrote a story referring to the positive traits donated one fifth as much as those who wrote a story referring to the negative traits. In Experiment 2, we showed that this effect was due specifically to a change in the self-concept. In Experiment 3, we replicated these findings and extended them to cooperative behavior in environmental decision making. We suggest that affirming a moral identity leads people to feel licensed to act immorally. However, when moral identity is threatened, moral behavior is a means to regain some lost self-worth.

ScienceDaily has a summary. Shorter: after strenuous exercise many people are apt to “treat themselves” to less than healthy concoctions….

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Not the usual political prayer venue

Mark Sanford occasionally visited a secretive Christian boarding house for politicians  in Washington, reports the Washington Post.   Coincidentally, no doubt, fellow adulterer Nevada Senator John Ensign also lived there with a few other politicians. 

A rival minister now charges that the house was too secretive, and thus perhaps not demanding enough of its residents and visitors.   Is he kidding?  Such avoidance of the public spotlight is a refreshing and admirable change from the usual display of public piety that became one of the Republicans’ most annoying traits during the Bush years (naive foreign adventurism being another, related to the first).   If more politicians showed the religious modesty of attendees at the nick-named “Prayer House,”* Secular Right would be much less exercised.

*Update: Sanford’s likely successor, South Carolina Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, does not follow this model of unobtrusive faith, if his campaign for “I Believe” license plates, tagged by Mickey Kaus, is any indication.

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Mark Sanford’s Thought for the Day

“God moves in mysterious ways.”

I would like to think that most people, even Republicans, wallow in sex scandals just for the sheer voyeuristic fun of destroying a politician’s career for no particular reason other than that one can.   For I otherwise don’t believe that there is a close connection between public and private virtue.   New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani was an execrable father and husband but a transformative mayor, who understood as a gut matter some fundamental principles about the public realm and the responsibilities of citizens towards each other.  Not all our Founding Fathers were paragons of fidelity.  Bill Clinton’s ability to nudge the Democratic agenda towards a modest repudiation of the welfare state was untouched by his irrelevant womanizing.  Sanford’s initial stance on the stimulus package was a valuable one,  and it is amusing to see the media left seize on his marital transgressions to discredit it yet again.  

A politician’s sex life has only one public relevance: its unavoidable function as a role model.  I confess that I would be unwilling to vote for a politician who acted as a serial impregnator of women without marrying any of them, not because I believed that such behavior told me anything about his public character , but because he would be further normalizing a civilization-destroying behavior.  There is a big difference between having an extramarital affair and never bothering to marry the mother(s) of your children in the first place–the one at least obeys a crucial norm, however imperfectly, the other destroys it completely. 

Sanford did make his private life a matter of public concern, however, by his self-involved failure to secure the chain of command during his disappearance.

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