Pascal’s Wager

Piling one irrationality onto another, the town fathers in the Sicilian town of Ficarra have collectively invested in Italy’s $165 million lottery:

”We chose numbers which were connected with the town’s patron saint, the Virgin Mary of the Assumption,” Mayor Basilio Ridolfo said. “It is our hope that, with her blessing, we will hit the jackpot.”

The Virgin Mary did not come through for last week’s drawing—but neither did any other saints.  Other towns are reportedly following Ficarra’s lead, which could lead to some heavenly protocol issues. 

Why is it considered more advanced to ask for a windfall through prayer,  rather than through a quid pro quo like a nice burnt offering?

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7 Responses to Pascal’s Wager

  1. David Hume says:

    it’s the thought that counts?

  2. An excellent question. Nice post.

  3. Caledonian says:

    Because trying to take advantage of an exchange with a divine power smacks of causality, which is associated with magical ritual and the idea that the divine can be forced or obligated to respond in a predictable way.

    Instead, ‘magic’ is eschewed by relying upon non-causal requests whose results are indistinguishable from chance. So it’s less magical to set up the request in such a way so that there is no expectation of return rather so that there is.

    Follow that?

    The fact that failure of the non-causal intervention is a weaker form of contrary evidence incompatible with faith has nothing to do with it. Pay no attention to the motivation behind the curtain.

  4. Polichinello says:

    Why is it considered more advanced to ask for a windfall through prayer, rather than through a quid pro quo like a nice burnt offering?

    It isn’t, but that isn’t what they did in Italy. There was no real “quid pro quo.” They pooled together and chose the numbers in the same way other people use their kids birthdays, and then hoped for the best. They didn’t expect it to work in the same way you expect your car to start. I’m surprised you passed over the most interesting quote in the story:

    “Right now we think we have a better chance of winning SuperEnalotto than getting funds owed to us from the state,” Ridolfo said.

  5. sg says:

    This is the type of superstition people descend into when reason and accountability fail. They tried to participate in a reasonable sort of governance, but that failed so it is a retreat to magically thinking. Sad really.

  6. Caledonian says:

    This is the type of superstition people descend into when reason and accountability fail.

    Prayer, or the lottery?

  7. Well, now that multiple towns are doing the same thing, the chance that some town wins might become substantial especially after repeated lotteries. Of course, when a single town wins, they’ll then be able to credit to the relevant patron saint of that town.

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