A question:
do you have polling data that examines distrust of atheists in public office according to gender/race/religion (e.g. exploring whether men or women are more likely to trust an atheist president)?
I couldn’t find cross-tabs, but pollster.com does have this trendline (atheists are yellow):
But the GSS has the variable SPKATH which would probably be a good proxy:
There are always some people whose ideas are considered bad or dangerous by other people. For instance, somebody who is against churches and religion… a. If such a person wanted to make a speech in your (city/town/community) against churches and religion, should he be allowed to speak, or not?
I limited the sample below to the years 1998-2008. “No College Degree” is inclusive of those who have attended, but not completed, university. Stupid = WORDSUM 0-4, Average = WORDSUM 5-8 and Smart = WORDSUM 9-10.
All cells were outside of each other’s 95% confidence intervals.
| Allow Anti-Religionist To Speak | ||||
| Male | Female | |||
| Yes | 80.5 | 73.6 | ||
| No | 19.5 | 26.4 | ||
| White | Black | |||
| Yes | 79.6 | 65.7 | ||
| No | 20.4 | 34.3 | ||
| No College Degree | College Degree | |||
| Yes | 72.5 | 90 | ||
| No | 27.5 | 10 | ||
| College Degree | ||||
| Stupid | Average | Smart | ||
| Yes | 74.9 | 89.4 | 96.3 | |
| No | 25.1 | 10.6 | 3.7 | |
| High School Diploma or Less | ||||
| Stupid | Average | Smart | ||
| Yes | 62.3 | 74 | 95.8 | |
| No | 37.7 | 26 | 4.2 | |
What the hell has happened to Mormons in the last decade?
Ross,
Mitt Romney. You have a concrete candidate, and the numbers drop. The same thing happened with women vis-a-vis Hilary.
Thanks for the data!
I wonder how much the gap between hostility to irreligion and homosexuality would narrow if only males were sampled. I suspect that if only men were sampled, there would be less hostility to irreligion and more hostility to homosexuality than there is now (i.e. the gap would shrink).
muffy, yes. on most social issues men and women don’t exhibit much difference. homosexuality is a notable exception, women are more liberal.
Mitt Romney. You have a concrete candidate, and the numbers drop. The same thing happened with women vis-a-vis Hilary.
hard to say much with 3 data points, but don’t you think it’s notable that mormons were flat between 70 & 2000? unlike catholics and baptists they weren’t near saturation either. for whatever reason mormons haven’t familiarized themselves with the general public.
and it’s notable that voting for a black did not decline in 2008. i would offer the hypothesis that when it comes to race related issues people are very aware of that they should say. more so than on sex and religion.
Interesting data. I agree about the Romney effect. Most people simply hadn’t thought about voting for a Mormon for president, whereas the question of a black president has been tossed around a lot more.
I noticed that when JFK ran, acceptance for a Catholic president, went up, the opposite trend for Romney. Hmmm.
If the trend lines have continued, a homosexual candidate would beat an atheist other things being equal. Who would have thought that in 1980?
I notice that the trend line for blacks dips a bit in the 80’s. Jesse Jackson?
I notice that the trend line for blacks dips a bit in the 80’s. Jesse Jackson?
race relations were strained i think by the 1980s by the violent crime wave which began in the late 60s. that issue has abated in the last 20 years.
People just didn’t know much about Mormons before Mitt ran, while they knew a good bit about Catholics and blacks. Some of their beliefs seem bizarre even to(other)religious people.
It’s interesting seeing the big drop once Romney got into the discussion. I wonder what would have happened had Romney come off as far less opportunistic and had Huckabee not played the “fear of Mormons” card.
Romney still seems like the leader for 2012, despite not being that appealing a candidate in many ways. (Sorry, he just reminds me of Clinton in too many ways)
At one time I’d hoped Jon Huntsman would run. He’s quite libertarian without going off the deep end like the Ron Paul movement. He’s also been amazingly effective as a governor. However when he put out feelers there was a lot of blowback in Ohio who saw his Mormonness and social libertarian positions as a danger. I see now evidence he plans to step down as ambassador and consider a run against his current boss.
Oh, regarding the Mormon drop, I suspect prop-8 had a lot to do with it.
Neither JFK nor Obama seem to have not led to a drop in willingness to vote for their distinctive group. Hillary only coincides with a small drop. So the Mormon drop is a bit of a stand out which I doubt Mitt Romney can explain on his own. Hence possibly other factors, such as Prop.8, might be relevant.
The speed of the improvement of the status of homosexuals is very striking. Sign of how things are moving (as is the rising tide of recognition of same-sex relationships). Indeed, it may be a major element in the decline of the standing of Christianity among young Americans.
There is a ‘not’ there that shouldn’t be. I.e. it should read “Neither JFK nor Obama seems to have led to a …”
On Mormons, Romney’s father was a candidate ~1972, and that didn’t change anything. I suspect that the 2000 drop had to do with negative campaigning in the primaries, the generally greater negativity of politics, and increased fanatacism in the Christian right.
The change looks sharp, but it’s only 10%. Probably someone was working to get the Mormons kicked out of the conservative Christian tent.