Will Ron Paul kill the caucuses?:
The most troubling eventuality that Iowa Republicans are bracing for is that Paul wins the caucuses only to lose the nomination and run as a third-party candidate in November — all but ensuring President Obama is re-elected.
The Paul family doth protest their Christianity, so they must know that their deity states that “I, the Lord your God, am a jealous God, visiting the iniquity of the fathers on the children, and on the third and the fourth generations of those who hate Me….” If Ron Paul “pulls a Nader” then Rand Paul’s political career is poisoned. Would a father do such a thing to a son? Perhaps. But I’d bet against it. There most certainly is a family “brand,” and I am curious as to why the elder Paul would expend his son’s capital in such a quixotic quest. True, it can be argued that Ron Paul’s run for president in the Republican primaries is quixotic, but he most certainly has affected the tenor of the debate and changed the terms of discussion on many issues. Running as a third party would do no such thing, in fact alienate hard won efforts at outreach to the broader American Right.
As someone who leans more left than right, I’ve been very happy with Ron Paul’s success this year. I’ve been watching some of the debates, and you can really see how Ron Paul went from never getting any time to actually being acknowledged now that he’s in 3rd (or was, last I saw). He’s directly challenged several other candidates on issues (his response to Bachman on Iran was excellent), and is generally a voice of (at the very least, relative) sanity among the current crop of candidates.
That said, I think you’re right that it’s quixotic. He has gotten some more attention, but he’s not really allied himself with any of the other candidates, and I can’t see him becoming a VP choice. Some of the other nominees have reached out to him (Gingrich said he was an influence), but he didn’t really respond similarly.
However, I think Ron Paul has more political capital than Rand Paul. Ron will not become president, but I don’t know if Rand would make it to 3rd place among the candidates. Perhaps he thinks the best way to spread his influence is to just be a major part in the debates.
Ron Paul has been saying he won’t run as an independent or for a 3rd party since before his son even got into politics. He ran in 1988 as a Libertarian and has no desire to repeat the experience of running as a minority party candidate (AKA – beating your head against the wall of an empty room)