Variation in belief 1988-2008, the rise of skepticism

Below in the comments David Heddle says:

Of course there is no way, that I can see, of estimating how many of those leaving the church were self-identified Christians but who were actually in-the-closet unbelievers. Perhaps (who knows?) this is a sizable group, one that is beginning to come out of the closet as the stigma of being a non-believer wanes. Those cases, however many there may be, are a win-win: better for the church they have left, better for society that they feel comfortable enough to stop the masquerade.

In the GSS there is a variable GOD which asks how confident people are their belief in God. Below are the year-by-year changes for those who are Protestant & Catholic, those with “No Religion” & the whole population. 95% confidence intervals in parentheses.

protcathrel

norelig

beliefvariation

Because of the sample sizes I am provisional about my conclusions, but, it seems that:

1) The religious categories stayed relatively stable

2) A slight increase in skepticism toward belief in God was evident in the total sample

3) Relatively stability in the fraction who “Know God Exists”

#2 is explicable in light of #1 if there was simply a change in the religious categories, something which we can be much more confident about (the “No religion” segment doubled over this span). #3 makes sense if the defection toward greater skepticism was generally from lukewarm or weaker believers.

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17 Responses to Variation in belief 1988-2008, the rise of skepticism

  1. Susan says:

    I doubt there’s a way to determine this, but it would be interesting to know how many regular churchgoers belong to a church not out of any particular belief in God, but because it’s useful for making social or even business contacts–and, I suppose, as a way of demonstrating your probity to those who need it demonstrated. I do know some non-believers who belong to churches, and attend services regularly, just because they like the sense of belonging to a self-selected community.

  2. Donna B. says:

    Susan, I’m one of those people. I still contribute monetarily and occasionally attend the church my parents joined when they first married and that I attended as a child. Note, this is a specific local (small town) church within a larger denomination. My donations are always targeted locally, for utilities, maintenance, supplies, etc. I do not contribute to the denomination.

    One of my daughters and her husband belong to a big, historical church in an old southern city. When I visit, I attend with them and her husband’s family. They were married in this church and it was a beautiful ceremony based on some of the more sensual Psalms. The church and cemetery surrounding it are elegant reminders of history and continuity… and the pipe organ with trumpets in the rear balcony is inspiring to listen to.

    Yet, their membership there is at least half (if not more) based on social and business contacts. That, and the fact that particular denomination does not view consuming alcoholic beverages as a sin. (Actually, that is contained in the social part.)

    The social aspect of belonging to a church community is quite powerful. Looking back on my life and beliefs, I can’t find evidence that I ever really “bought” the truly religious aspects, but I found the social and emotional aspects of religion very attractive… to the point I converted to Catholicism for several years.

    It was the ritual, the sameness, the “groundedness” that I psychologically needed during a very trying time in my life. I think it is a basic human need (perhaps longing is a better word?) to belong to something with a goal outside themselves, and atheism seemingly does not take this into account outside joining PZ Myers and his ilk in making fun of and mocking religion.

    I don’t find that satisfying in the least.

  3. Clark says:

    Susan, I’d brought that point up in one of the prior threads on this subject. I used to live in Lousiana for a bit and depending upon the dominate faith of the County, (either Catholic or Baptist typically) people would go to Church to smooze with the other prominent figures of the County. I’m sure some were believers but I suspect many more were opportunistic.

    Then I’ve met several people in my own faith who stay because of the strong social ties. This is a less cynical move, partially because of the way religion tends to infuse Mormon life. Likewise there are those who are non-believers but who don’t want to disappoint family members who’d be shocked. It’s probably fairly easy to be a low commitment member of a faith. Further there are lots of charity actions that I suspect even non-believers would feel good joining in with. It just becomes awkward when believers assume a non-believer is a believer. Some actions are, I think, a bit hypocritical and deceptive for a non-believer to engage in with believers pretending to be a believer.

  4. David Hume says:

    I used to live in Lousiana for a bit and depending upon the dominate faith of the County, (either Catholic or Baptist typically)

    a friend of mine went to work in louisiana for a nonprofit. when she got there her boss inquired which local church she’d like to attend. as an agnostic lapsed unitarian she hadn’t expected that sort of question, and it hadn’t crossed her mind she’d be going to a church 🙂

  5. Half Sigma says:

    Instead of a Christian God, people are now believing in a Higher Power. This Higher Power, unfortunately, is a global warmist.

  6. Susan says:

    @David Hume

    Is it legal even to ask such a question? I suppose it depends on how the question is phrased. And how did your friend respond? I suppose if it were me, and I really wanted the job, I’d try gracefully to deflect the question. On the other hand, if someone offered me a 3 million dollar book contract coinditional on my attending church every Sunday, I’d find the nearest pew, grab a hymnal, and start singing at the top of my lungs. Was it Balzac who said that “the true individualist has the courage to wear a mask”?

  7. Clark says:

    Well it’s Louisiana so “legality” often doesn’t have a lot to do with it. (Although I’ve heard it’s gotten better there) Seriously when I was there I swear it made the Dukes of Hazzard seem like a documentary. (Not at knock on the state – but come on. It’s sometimes like the politics of a 3rd world nation there)

    Of course to make it legal you just wouldn’t make any decisions based upon religion. But you’d do business deals there so there would be opportunity losses by not attending. And if you happen to be a member of a minority religion…

    (Although let’s be honest – how many people need such contact? – although there is the problem of when something goes wrong and you need to appeal to the government. The connected do better than the unconnected. That’s true, although perhaps to a lesser extent, nearly everywhere though.)

  8. Donna B. says:

    One of the worst things about living in the South (not just Louisiana) is that “Where do you go to church?” is as common as an icebreaker question as “So, how do you like this weather?”

  9. David Hume says:

    my friend already had the job, and had relocated from the pacific northwest (where she was from). it was the red cross. in any case, i think her boss was trying to make her feel comfortable and situate her is all. it did cause some awkwardness, and another co-worker joked with her asking if she was an “atheist”. of course, by their lights she was actually an atheist. she also had some problems with one of her roommates who would try and talk about religion too much in the hopes that she’d end up going to a church.

    it wasn’t oppressive or anything, but there was a cultural readjustment in that area. though that was true more generally (corruption was a serious concern she had, a concern her local friends laughed at).

  10. Susan says:

    @Donna B.

    What happens if you say “I don’t?”

  11. Clark says:

    They really don’t like atheists in Louisiana.

  12. Susan says:

    @Clark

    So then at least in some parts of the country, joining a church isn’t just a smart business, political, and social move, but a form of protective self-coloration.

  13. Clark says:

    Yes, which let’s be honest. It used to be when communities formed around a central Church. So this is an old part of America that just happens to persist in some places against the large wave of cosmopolitianism.

  14. Donna B. says:

    Susan, if it happens to be someone who really matters to me (and I matter to them) there’s no problem with saying “I don’t” except that I’ll probably get asked why. I can truthfully say that I dislike the politics of organized religion and they generally nod their heads in understanding.

    Some very rare times, as with one boss I had, there are philosophical discussions about religion. He never tried to talk me into believing and I never tried to talk him out of it — but we had some fine talks. And my job was never on the line because of belief one way or the other. He was a rare, genuinely nice person in all respects.

    Being a fool, I left that job for one that paid more than twice as much but put me in the midst of evangelical Christians. I finally became frustrated enough that I requested one employee wear headphones when she listened to sermons so that the rest of the office not have to hear them. And frankly, it wasn’t the content but the constant droning of the voice which was annoying in the same way that CSpan can be.

    However, she took this as an attack on her religion, even though I said nothing to her or any other of my staff about their “Jesus Saves” screensavers and discussions and planning of church activities during their breaks (or even work hours, as it was a fairly relaxed place about dealing with personal issues.)

    This eventually led to an erosion of trust between me and at least half my staff… to the point where I could not be an effective leader. I accept responsibility for that because I should have found another way to deal with the recorded sermons.

    What was truly amazing was that my supervisor (and other division directors) all agreed with me that something had to be done, but none were willing to back me on my decision of requesting earphones. I got sympathy, but no support.

    On the other end of the ‘belief’ scale, my boss and my co-workers were all leftist feminists and that ultimately grated on my nerves worse and resulted in far more tongue-biting than anything religious ever did.

    My husband and I discussed whether I should resign or wait to be fired and decided that another few months of that salary was worth the frustration… and the increased benefits of my subsequent unemployment benefits. I was fired 3 months later, though it was technically a reduction in force termination (ie, position eliminated) because there was no reason anyone cared to put on paper for firing me.

    When it’s a casual meeting with a stranger (say in a doctor’s office waiting room), I simply lie. I say I’m Catholic and enjoy visiting all the different churches in town. And then I ask about the weather.

    And… in previewing this comment, I need to say that the place I worked was unusual — a highly politicized non-profit agency (run by a narcissist with borderline tendencies whose problems I was aware of when I took the job) and… that I was hired to work through a financial crisis and crucial grant-writing season. When the crisis subsided, I would have been let go for whatever reason, but the religious and political stuff that took place were traumatic nonetheless. And it really made me feel guilty for leaving the lower-paying but wonderfully satisfying job I had earlier.

    I would not say that the agency I worked for was typical of employment in Louisiana or of most non-profits. My husband is a regular Red Cross volunteer and religion has been a problem only once in his years of serving. That came up during Katrina when a large evangelical church seemed to think their monetary contributions allowed them to “run” a shelter. The local Red Cross handled that situation by offering to return the contributions rather than let them turn the shelter into a 24 hour church. The church withdrew the demand that their volunteers rather than Red Cross volunteers man the shelter.

    Heck, I’m really a nice person even if I’m not religious. I don’t even refuse to talk to the Jehovah’s Witnesses when they come by. I tell them up front that they are wasting their time, but I’m very nice about it. I actually became quite fond of one couple who were persistent but also very nice. They finally gave up on me as a possible convert, but stopped by a few months later to show off their newborn baby. I felt honored. And the baby was adorable!

    (Note to proselytizers: Show up with a cuddly baby and I’ll listen as long as I get to cuddle, OK?)

  15. Susan says:

    Donna, you may have defined the dilemma of the secular conservative: Do I work with people whose religious views I find abhorrent, but whose politics I share; or do I work with people whose religious (non-religious) views I share; but whose politics I find abhorrent.

  16. Xanthippa says:

    Interesting!

    I have met people who have described themselves – proudly – as ‘social Christians’: they said they liked the message ‘be nice to your neighbours’, and the charity work the Church did, but did not like to contemplate the ‘big’ questions. So, they accepted ‘God’ as a ‘premise’, instead of a ‘belief’, and happily enjoyed and partook in the social ‘good works’ the Church did.

    I wonder if anyone has done a statistical look at how many people who self-identify as ‘believing’ in a ‘God’ or ‘higher power’ or something, to differentiate between those whose belief is based on deep personal consideration and/or study and whose ‘belief’ is, therefore, deeply seeded and ‘arrived-at-belief’ (clumsy expression, sorry, I hope you know what I mean), versus the people who simply accept the dogma because that is what they were taught, but who have never questioned/examined their ‘belief’ on any deep level. I suppose I am attempting to describe ‘arrived-at-belief’ versus ‘unquestioned belief’….

    I am willing to bet that if there were a study like this done on ‘believers’ as well as ‘non-believers’, the ‘non-believers’ will have a vastly greater percentage of people who have examined the issues and whose ‘non-belief’ is ‘arrived at’ than those who have ‘unquestioned non-belief’…. It would be interesting to see what this ratio would be like among the ‘believers’.

  17. Anthony says:

    One of the funnier culture-clash stories I’ve heard was some friends who moved to Utah. They’re Californian, vaguely hippyish, but well-grounded enough to have real jobs. The woman was startled when several people asked her something about where she went to church (a question apparently not asked in Utah, because the answer is assumed). She asked a non-Mormon co-worker of hers, who told her they must be Pentecostals, and assumed that she was, too, because she wore her (long) hair down and didn’t wear makeup.

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